|Original picture by Socialdemokraterne.dk|
When new infrastructure projects are presented, they are based on a set of long term assumptions. Usually, these assumptions never reach a broader audience and they are never explained. We have read an analysis that presents a long list of assumptions about the future of traffic development in Copenhagen and we took a long, hard look at it.
The analysis is entitled “Udbygning af den kollektive trafik i KøbenhavnAnalysefasen – Trafikmodelberegninger 2018-2040″. In English: “Expansion of Public Transport in Copenhagen. Analysis phase – Traffic model calculations 2018-2040“.
In the foreign press, Frank Jensen is quoted for aiming to have 50% of our citizens on bikes. If this is to happen, it must be reflected in the city planning, other wise it’s just green-washing, deceit and, basically, fraud. So let’s examine the city planning assumptions.
This demographic is highly responsive to such transportation forms as car share services, cargo bikes, bikes, light rail, s-train etc. – rather than buying their first car.
The report does not base the assumptions on such rationalities. Instead, they merely believe that car ownership will rise along with the gross National Product. In other words, they assume that the 81.5% who do not own a car simply cannot afford it. That’s an unsubstantiated and ignorant analysis – one you would normally only expect from the national automobile association (FDM). The primary weakness of the DTU study, is that it neglects to identify other contribution factors to growth in car ownership, such as the previously high Importtaxes, which during the period of the study was lowered to the extend that small cars was permanently discounted by as much as 50%. Changes in the GINI-Coeeficient, increases in commuter-cost of mass transit (it grew 300% compared to the price of petrol), decreasing cost of driving a car per kilomtre, car-popularity, societal emphasis on material status, were neither considered etc.
Finally, the massive investments in infrastructure don’t even increase mobility, as the growth of trips is only about half the growth of the population.
Source: Tetraplan -Udbygning af den kollektive trafik i København. Analysefasen Trafikmodelberegninger 2018-2040